Fail statting for the win!

Greetings and salutations!

I know fail statting is a well kept secret.. but for those wise folks who know. Can you tell me how many fail stages it took to create this?

Many thanks ^^/

 

Lim x→0+ where f(x) = 1/x

 

I CALL HAXXX

 

Just get lucky once. :V
this can be probably achieved with a 70%ish success rate.

 

I heard you need 46% to fail up for each stage. I just want to know how many stages it took to make so I could guess how to reverse engineer it.

 

I am more interested in that armor's appearance. I don't think I've seen that, probably I forgot XD Can anybody tell me what app is that?

 

i think its ritual dress

 

It's the Ritual Dress app

 

If lucky you can get one in 10 tries.
The actual stat is d5cd7cd17cr17 atk -7% accuracy -7% with a success rate of 21% at pot 65.
It should fail and the atk neg should change to atk +1 or +2 .
Thats how hard it is

 

Awesome thanks

 

Mm when cap130 got 5s7cd13cd13cr 26%succes un 2 trys. Its just about luk rng and how many mana you can spend.

 

Spoiler: Before we start, here's theoretical proof that my theory below works, to avoid argument from certain individuals.

Statting the following gamble stat: S7% CD7% CD17 Aggro-10% with a displayed 75% success rate per stat.

Slot 1: STR+7%
Slot 2: Critical Damage+7%
Slot 3: Critical Damage+17
Slot 4: Aggro-10%
Slot 5: MATK-7%
Slot 6: Accuracy-7

The simple way is that you want to keep 4 as successes, and the rest doesn't matter. So the equation is just 0.75^4 (0.301640625), as the other numbers would simply just be 1.

- In the simulation, as long as slots 1, 2, 3 and 4 are a success, then the entire stat can be considered a success.
- In this simulation, the 6 slots will be rolled one after the other, meaning the probabilities are independent of each other.
- The success or failure of Slot 1 does not affect the success or failure rate of each slot.
- Under the 75% success per slot, it is implied that each fail will be 25%.

The following shows every possible combination, 64 in total (2 to the power of 6), for all of the 6 stats, (64 in total from FFFFFF, FFFFFS, all the way to, SSSSSF, and finally SSSSSS.
Each F represents that the slot fails, with a 25% rate, and each S represents a success in that slot, with a 75% rate.

The following is a list of every possible combination with with their individual % chance of landing on each fail/success combination.

F / F / F / F / F / F
25% x 25% x 25% x 25% x 25% x 25% = 0.0244140625%

F / F / F / F / F / S
25% x 25% x 25% x 25% x 25% x 75% = 0.0732421875%

F / F / F / F / S / F
25% x 25% x 25% x 25% x 75% x 25% = 0.0732421875%

F / F / F / F / S / S
25% x 25% x 25% x 25% x 75% x 75% = 0.2197265625%

F / F / F / S / F / F
25% x 25% x 25% x 75% x 25% x 25% = 0.0732421875%

F / F / F / S / F / S
25% x 25% x 25% x 75% x 25% x 75% = 0.2197265625%

F / F / F / S / S / F
25% x 25% x 25% x 75% x 75% x 25% = 0.2197265625%

F / F / F / S / S / S
25% x 25% x 25% x 75% x 75% x 75% = 0.6591796875%

F / F / S / F / F / F
25% x 25% x 75% x 25% x 25% x 25% = 0.0732421875%

F / F / S / F / F / S
25% x 25% x 75% x 25% x 25% x 75% = 0.2197265625%

F / F / S / F / S / F
25% x 25% x 75% x 25% x 75% x 25% = 0.2197265625%

F / F / S / F / S / S
25% x 25% x 75% x 25% x 75% x 75% = 0.6591796875%

F / F / S / S / F / F
25% x 25% x 75% x 75% x 25% x 25% = 0.2197265625%

F / F / S / S / F / S
25% x 25% x 75% x 75% x 25% x 75% = 0.6591796875%

F / F / S / S / S / F
25% x 25% x 75% x 75% x 75% x 25% = 0.6591796875%

F / F / S / S / S / S
25% x 25% x 75% x 75% x 75% x 75% = 1.9775390625%

F / S / F / F / F / F
25% x 75% x 25% x 25% x 25% x 25% = 0.0732421875%

F / S / F / F / F / S
25% x 75% x 25% x 25% x 25% x 75% = 0.2197265625%

F / S / F / F / S / F
25% x 75% x 25% x 25% x 75% x 25% = 0.2197265625%

F / S / F / F / S / S
25% x 75% x 25% x 25% x 75% x 75% = 0.6591796875%

F / S / F / S / F / F
25% x 75% x 25% x 75% x 25% x 25% = 0.2197265625%

F / S / F / S / F / S
25% x 75% x 25% x 75% x 25% x 75% = 0.6591796875%

F / S / F / S / S / F
25% x 75% x 25% x 75% x 75% x 25% = 0.6591796875%

F / S / F / S / S / S
25% x 75% x 25% x 75% x 75% x 75% = 1.9775390625%

F / S / S / F / F / F
25% x 75% x 75% x 25% x 25% x 25% = 0.2197265625%

F / S / S / F / F / S
25% x 75% x 75% x 25% x 25% x 75% = 0.6591796875%

F / S / S / F / S / F
25% x 75% x 75% x 25% x 75% x 25% = 0.6591796875%

F / S / S / F / S / S
25% x 75% x 75% x 25% x 75% x 75% = 1.9775390625%

F / S / S / S / F / F
25% x 75% x 75% x 75% x 25% x 25% = 0.6591796875%

F / S / S / S / F / S
25% x 75% x 75% x 75% x 25% x 75% = 1.9775390625%

F / S / S / S / S / F
25% x 75% x 75% x 75% x 75% x 25% = 1.9775390625%

F / S / S / S / S / S
25% x 75% x 75% x 75% x 75% x 75% = 5.9326171875%

S / F / F / F / F / F
75% x 25% x 25% x 25% x 25% x 25% = 0.0732421875%

S / F / F / F / F / S
75% x 25% x 25% x 25% x 25% x 75% = 0.2197265625%

S / F / F / F / S / F
75% x 25% x 25% x 25% x 75% x 25% = 0.2197265625%

S / F / F / F / S / S
75% x 25% x 25% x 25% x 75% x 75% = 0.6591796875%

S / F / F / S / F / F
75% x 25% x 25% x 75% x 25% x 25% = 0.2197265625%

S / F / F / S / F / S
75% x 25% x 25% x 75% x 25% x 75% = 0.6591796875%

S / F / F / S / S / F
75% x 25% x 25% x 75% x 75% x 25% = 0.6591796875%

S / F / F / S / S / S
75% x 25% x 25% x 75% x 75% x 75% = 1.9775390625%

S / F / S / F / F / F
75% x 25% x 75% x 25% x 25% x 25% = 0.2197265625%

S / F / S / F / F / S
75% x 25% x 7% x 25% x 25% x 75% = 0.6591796875%

S / F / S / F / S / F
75% x 25% x 75% x 25% x 75% x 25% = 0.6591796875%

S / F / S / F / S / S
75% x 25% x 75% x 25% x 75% x 75% = 1.9775390625%

S / F / S / S / F / F
75% x 25% x 75% x 75% x 25% x 25% = 0.6591796875%

S / F / S / S / F / S
75% x 25% x 75% x 75% x 25% x 75% = 1.9775390625%

S / F / S / S / S / F
75% x 25% x 75% x 75% x 75% x 25% = 1.9775390625%

S / F / S / S / S / S
75% x 25% x 75% x 75% x 75% x 75% = 5.9326171875%

S / S / F / F / F / F
75% x 75% x 25% x 25% x 25% x 25% = 0.2197265625%

S / S / F / F / F / S
75% x 75% x 25 x 25% x 25% x 75% = 0.6591796875%

S / S / F / F / S / F
75% x 75% x 25% x 25% x 75% x 25% = 0.6591796875%

S / S / F / F / S / S
75% x 75% x 25% x 25% x 75% x 75% = 1.9775390625%

S / S / F / S / F / F
75% x 75% x 25% x 75% x 25% x 25% = 0.6591796875%

S / S / F / S / F / S
75% x 75% x 25% x 75% x 25% x 75% = 1.9775390625%

S / S / F / S / S / F
75% x 75% x 25% x 75% x 75% x 25% = 1.9775390625%

S / S / F / S / S / S
75% x 75% x 25% x 75% x 75% x 75% = 5.9326171875%

S / S / S / F / F / F
75% x 75% x 75% x 25% x 25% x 25% = 0.6591796875%

S / S / S / F / F / S
75% x 75% x 75% x 25% x 25% x 75% = 1.9775390625%

S / S / S / F / S / F
75% x 75% x 75% x 25% x 75% x 25% = 1.9775390625%

S / S / S / F / S / S
75% x 75% x 75% x 25% x 75% x 75% = 5.9326171875%

S / S / S / S / F / F
75% x 75% x 75% x 75% x 25% x 25% = 1.9775390625%
All Success!

S / S / S / S / F / S
75% x 75% x 75% x 75% x 25% x 75% = 5.9326171875%
All Success!

S / S / S / S / S / F
75% x 75% x 75% x 75% x 75% x 25% = 5.9326171875%
All Success!

S / S / S / S / S / S
75% x 75% x 75% x 75% x 75% x 75% = 17.7978515625%
All Success!

As we have defined what each slot represents in this simulation, even if we get a total of 4 or more successes, but not all of Slots 1-4 are success, the stat will be considered a failure. After adding up all of the % chances that have the first 4 slots as "S", we come to a total success rate of 31.640625% - the rate I had posted before, by simply doing 75% ^ 4. This proves that the last 2 stats, are negligible and can be regarded as 100% success rate, as their existence, or lack thereof, does not affect the stat overall.

To get that stat, you're looking to get 4 stats to succeed, and one stat to fail. The success rate in Toram is displayed as % per stat.

So if n represents the success rate between 0 and 1, the rate you're looking for is (n ^ 4) * (1 - n).

n^4 represents the total probability of the 4 positive stats succeeding
(1 - n) represents the total probability of ATK-7% failing.

These are all the "favourable" outcomes that you would want to get this stat. If you take the derivative, or graph it out, you'll find that this is maxed out when the probability of getting the 4 positive stats to succeed and ATK-7% to fail is when the individual success rate is 80%, with a total rate of this happening at 8.192%. This doesn't include how the ATK% stat will fail, so it's possible it may just disappear instead of becoming positive.

I believe that the current closest you can get to the desired 80% is 58%, or 0.58.

Spoiler: D4CD7CD17CR16 ATK-7 MATK-7

Potential : 65
STEP #0: Critical Damage % +6 x1
STEP #1: Critical Damage +1 x1
STEP #2: Critical Rate +1 x1
STEP #3: ATK %-7, MATK %-7 x1
STEP #4: Critical Rate +1 x16
STEP #5: DEX % +4, Critical Damage % +1, Critical Damage +16 x1
Success rate: 58%

So overall your chances of getting that combo is 0.58 * 0.58 * 0.58 * 0.58 * 0.42, or 0.0475292832 - 4.75% - approximately 1 try in every 21. At this point, good luck getting ATK% to become positive and get to 2%!

 

My head hurt scrolling through that spoiler @-@ but wow so detailed!

 

Reminds me of apost by @TheXIIIthGuy, but no warning of the mathpocalypse. Jk, thanks for the explanation.