I Don't get how you guys sell refine S for only 10m

I did some rough math, and it should take near 20m on average to get to refine S. How are you guys so lucky??

Refine to B -> 1M
Refine B -> A requires on average 500k worth of mats
Refine A -> S requires on average 500k worth of mats
From B to A -> 5% chance of failure, 1% chance of success. So you are probably going to fail on average around 4 times before you succeed once.

Assuming you spend about a 1mil everytime you need to get back to B...
The first time you get to A would end up costing you about 5.5m on average...
Then rinse and repeat for A, except you would spend only 4.5m getting it back up to A after every failure since you negate the first B since its there already

1m B -> A (Fail)
2m B -> A (Fail)
3m B -> A (Fail)
4m B -> A (Fail)
5m B -> A (Success) +500k total for A refining

5.5m A->S (Fail)

5.5m B -> A (Fail)
6.5m B -> A (Fail)
7.5m B -> A (Fail)
8.5m B -> A (Fail)
9.5m B -> A (Success) +500k total for A refine

10m A -> S (Fail)

ETC ETC

5.5m + 4.5+ 4.5 + 4.5 + 4.5 = 23.5m

HOW ARE YOU GUYS MAKING PROFIT?!

Is the degrade rate different or something. What am I calculating wrong?

Should I calculate it in terms of 50% chance of staying the same when it fails and 50% chance of degrading when it fails? There by reducing the degrade rate to only 2.5%?

As in NS = Fail but no degrade (50%), and Fail but 1 degrade (50%) With luk = 2.5% Chance of degrading

1s = Fail but no degrade (33%), Fail but 1 Degrade (33%) fail but 2 Degrade (33%) Luk = 3.3 % Chance of degrading

2s = Fail but no grade (25%), Fail but 1 Degrade (25%) Fail but 2 Degrade (25%) Fail but 3 Degrade (25%) Luk = 3.75 % Chance of Degrading


This would alter the calculations (Going to round up for ez maths) for NS

1m B to A (Fail)
2m B to A (Fail)
3m B to A (Success) 500k

1st A to S (Fail)

3.5m B to A (Fail)
4.5m B to A (Fail)
5.5m B to A (Success) 500k

2nd A to S (Fail)

6m B to A (Fail)
7m B to A (Fail)
8m B to A (Success) 500k

3rd A to S (Success) 500k

Total at 9m (3.5 + 2.5 + 2.5 + 500k)

That would make sense if that were the case with the degradation rates.

 

Yeah cuz they dumb LOL

10m is such a great price for S NS.

 

Please do. Ungrateful ppl gotta be changed.

 

I'm not even going to read the post in becausede I already know, and I agree. I've been thinking recently of posting exactly what you did, so thank you.

+1

Even gatcha hammers are bad rates in value between $ and Spona

However, reading again, based on odds of refine success/fail to degrade, I helieve with proper calculation the amount of Spina to refine S will be way higher. 20-60m++.

 

And here I am spent almost 3m and I can get a weapon to +B and stayed on +C. It is a NS also. Why are they so lucky dammit

 

I have a ns katana +s that only costed roughly half a stack of andeg and maybe 20 ori. I would have sold it for 10m too if it wasn't an anniv ix.
Now it's 2 slotted and i'm loving it

 

I think what you've mathed out is the worst case scenario. Then luck plays a factor to get you anywhere before this figure.

I once paid a friend to get me from +A to +S (ns) purely from material cost and i lost out badly (7m).

I tried to refine anniv bow (ns) to +s the normal way and it took 5 stacks ori + 16 stks andeg.

Then i used all my whale event refine items (silver+gold pom refines, 10 expert hammers and 5 neo expert hammers) on my hell reaper (1s) and i got +S within minutes, right near the last hammer.

 

I wish this was worse case scenario

 

i noticed i have a lot more luk with my luk refiner now that the character is capped.

 

LOL i'm pretty sure there's no correlation there

 

is there any source of 5% failure chance? As i saw somewhere at dopr it said pure luk has 95% anti-degrade with no degra, but with degra it's 98,75% anti-degrade rate. Or maybe im wrong?

 

Well i even sell + S crit staff 2 slot only 3.9m cuz no one buy it if i put 5m++ price

 

sounds like its an old staff.

 

A7%CrCrcdcd19 lil empres staff
Not orginaly my refine i just get it on, CB +A an the price sell for 2.2m and lucky first try and get it + S
After use it for testting build assassin staff i m, sell it

Belive or not i just tell u the true.

 

welp, people want to get updated stuff so yeah. poor lil empress 2S +S weapons, ranges 3m-7m now.

 

Yeah cuz update stuff litle old weapon drop so fast